Are you running bad? Getting cold decked?
Oh sure, we all think we are running cold - never getting primo hands. The challenge is actually proving (or disproving) this.
Enter Holdem Manager.
I was snooping around in HEM one day and found the Preflop Hands chart. For some reason they default selection when you open this page is to [*] 3 bet pre but if you change it to all hands (after selecting the session/time frame you want) you can see just how you ran.
According to HEM the average frequency for AA,KK,QQ,AK hands is 2.6% - anything above that is 'running good' and below is 'running bad'. Oddly, I have found no correlation between profitable sessions and percentage of 'good' hands. Often you find that your big hands win small pots and small hands can win big pots.
Yesterday (Saturday) I played the WBCOOP event. I really wish they would structure these events so you don't end up with so many dead stacks at the beginning of the event. It isn't unusual to find yourself at a table with one or two other players - absurdly aggressive players. It takes a long time to finally get to a full table of active players. The event plays out backwards: shorthanded or headsup with deep stacks to start then moderate stacks at a 4 -6 handed table followed by full handed tables with short stacks and HUGE stacks.
I barely managed to survived to the money telling myself the whole time that I ran so very cold when it came to cards. Once I hit the money I shipped my pathetic stack with A8 and doubled through A3. I chipped up a little more but only lasted a few spots into the 2nd payout level.
That's when I fired up HEM to see if my perception of running cold was indeed reality. Snuffy was railing me in the later stages of the event. I was telling him my hole cards. It was obvious to us that I was getting crappy cards.
It looks like it wasn't just my imagination: 42o, 32o 94o, 74o, 65o & 97o were my most frequent hands - Poker Grump would have pwned! Sure makes it easy to fold when those are the hands you are dealt.
Being dealt a pairs is a .5% probability, offsuit hands are .9%, and suited hands .3% likelihood. Granted, this is a small sample size and you really can't expect to run exactly to expectation during any given session of poker. That said, it would be nice to run closer to expectation than I did. (Yes, this is me whining about running bad - get over it).
I supposed I should just be content that I went as deep as I did considering the hands I was getting. But a part of me recalls the famous quote, "Real poker players don't need cards!" Yeah, uh huh. Sure.